"Russia's Bin Laden" Threatens the Winter Olympics

Summary: Doku Umarov and the Caucasus Emirate have threatened Russia's 2014 Winter Olympics. If they make good on this threat, they will cease to be seen as fighting a localized war against Russia, and instead become known as international jihadis.


Doku Umarov, nicknamed "Russia's Osama Bin Laden" for his attacks on civilians there, has called on his followers to employ "maximum force" and "any methods" to prevent the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. Umarov was the last President of rebel Chechen Republic of Ichkeria against Russian rule, before he proclaimed himself the first Emir of the Caucasus in 2007. Sochi, in the north Caucasus, thus falls within his declared "emirate", and as a major prestige project of Umarov's arch-enemy President Putin, the Winter Olympics there could hardly fail to be a major target for him.

Umarov's Caucasus Emirate  (Имарат Кавказ Imarat Kavkaz) has pursued a mixed strategy in its war against Russia, on the one hand perpetrating significant attacks on civilians (bombing the Moscow Metro in 2010 and a Moscow airport in 2011) and fostering links with al Qaeda and the Taliban, and on the other hand occasionally declaring halts on attacks against anything but military and police targets. With this threat against the Winter Olympics, Umarov is clearly once more giving the green light to attacks against all Russians, military and civilian alike.

However, he most distinctive feature thus far of the Emirate, and Umarov in particular, has been their distinct and intense localism. Historically, they have tried to assure the world that their struggle is anti-Russian, not pan-Islamist. When terrorists of Chechen descent bombed the Boston Marathon earlier this year, Umarov denied any involvement by his organisation, stressing that their primary enemy is Russia and they “are not engaged in military hostilities with the United States.” They have also paid only the most minimal lip service to the 'Palestinian cause', that sacred cow of jihadis across the world. Umarov's religious beliefs are also unusual and particular to his Chechen homeland. He specifically abjures Salafi and Wahhabi forms of Islam, and instead identifies himself as a "traditionalist" Muslim, placing him at odds with most violent jihadis.

This threat against the Sochi Winter Olympics, however, has a much more international edge to it. Though Umarov may justify attacking this "Satanic dancing" on the grounds that the north Caucasus is the graveyard of innumerable Muslims killed in Russia's conquest of the region two centuries ago, if his organisation actually follows through and strikes at the events their victims will hail from many different countries. This, alongside with the lingering association with the Boston Bombing, would be sufficient to earn the Caucasus Emirate a new international status, and a host of new enemies to go along with it. Umarov will need to consider if striking at Putin's prize is worth making his name known to the angry populations of half the world.